ICE Brent futures drifted toward $101 while physical prices leaped, exposing a stark divergence in how the market values immediate oil delivery. Dated Brent crude jumped above $120 per barrel on Friday, driven by shipping risks in the Hormuz Strait and a fuel export suspension from Beijing. State oil major PetroChina has canceled the majority of its planned October gasoline and jet fuel shipments to protect domestic inventories, restricting supplies to all regions except Hong Kong and Macau.

The ban began on October 1, coinciding with the Golden Week holiday that ends on October 7. China exported 6.01 Mt of refined products in August, up 12.7% year on year, a surge that contributed to domestic stock depletion. This supply withdrawal comes as Russia extends its diesel export ban and Gulf shipments remain at only 58% of pre-war levels. Whether exports resume after the holiday depends on the country's refinery output and fuel inventories.