Front-month TTF futures are trading at the highest inflation adjusted level on record excluding the 16 month window surrounding Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. European benchmark gas prices climbed above €80 per megawatt-hour on Sept. 10, while storage fills sit at the lowest recorded level for this time of year. This deficit increases dependence on spot market LNG imports to maintain supplies during the 2026/27 winter.

Global coal demand will rise 1.2% in 2026 to 8.94 billion tonnes, the IEA forecast. Conflict in the Middle East and elevated gas costs drive the shift, with coal consumption hitting a record this year to bolster energy supply. The International Energy Agency notes that higher natural gas prices are a primary driver for the increased reliance on coal.