Global energy markets are receiving contradictory data on the volume of crude passing through the shipping lane between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The chief executive of Total reports that about 10M BPD of oil are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a figure that diverges from estimations provided by other industry and government sources. President Donald Trump asserted that a record volume of oil passed through the strait recently, exceeding levels seen before the war, while the US Treasury Secretary stated that more than 1B barrels have left the region in exchange for zero barrels for Iran. Data from Kpler indicates a 7-day moving average of over 13.5M BPD, driven largely by a loading blitz from Saudi Arabia.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf argues that Tehran still controls the waterway, citing a market premium of $35 to $50 per barrel over pre-invasion prices as evidence. Despite the resumed flows, the financial cost of moving oil through the region remains high, with ship-to-ship transfers adding a $30 to $40 per barrel surcharge. Analysts warn that comparing single-day transit peaks to pre-war monthly averages is misleading and does not yet prove a durable recovery in oil flows.