Texas and Oklahoma became the final states to see pump prices cross the $6 per gallon mark this week as a global distillate shock roils energy markets. Supply losses from the Middle East averaged 770,000 barrels a day from March to August, more than double the 350,000 barrel a day loss from Russian supplies. President Donald Trump attributed the price rise to the Russia-Ukraine war, but Bloomberg estimates and diesel trader data identify the Iran war as the primary driver of the record $6.45 per gallon average.

Jet fuel on the Gulf Coast benchmark reached $4.55 a gallon on Thursday, within 20 cents of its wartime peak, while New York prices hit $4.75 a gallon. Refiners can increase jet fuel output by 20% to 25% or more to manage costs, but they lack similar flexibility for diesel production. This supply crunch is squeezing farmers and threatening higher food prices as the cost of the fuel of commerce reaches an all-time high.