An acute squeeze during the expiration of futures contracts on September 30 sent fuel costs to unprecedented peaks. US diesel prices climbed above $224 per barrel, marking a new record high, even as crude oil prices declined over the course of the week. The diesel crack spread against Brent oil hit $122 per barrel during the trading window, although separate market reports placed the figure at $110 per barrel.

Refining bottlenecks now outweigh the return of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz as the most critical factor for oil market normalization. Market observers are monitoring the duration of Russian refinery turnarounds and Ukrainian drone activity, as well as product flows coming out of Hormuz, to gauge the impact on global supply stability.