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Saturday, Sep 26, 2026

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Clarity Act Pass Odds Hit All Time Low of 15%↩︎

Former CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo declared that the CLARITY Act is dead in the current session of Congress, shifting the authority to write cryptocurrency regulations to SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig. Prediction market Kalshi set the probability of the legislation passing within the year at 15%, an all-time low for the bill. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill urged lawmakers to determine a path forward for the legislation instead of focusing on the failed cloture vote in the Senate.

The bill failed to advance on September 15 after falling short of the 60 votes required for cloture in the Senate. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong rejected assertions from The Wall Street Journal that his negotiating tactics caused the failure, claiming instead that the final draft was strong and that banking lobbyists worked to kill the bill. Other analysts, including Brendan Pedersen, attributed the defeat to a combination of bad process, external politics, and wasted time. White House adviser Patrick Witt stated that President Trump had accepted ethics restrictions on digital asset sponsorship to help secure the legislation's passage.

Image via @kalshi_crypto on X
Continues from Thursday, Sep 24
US Senate Kills CLARITY Act Crypto Bill
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