The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday to determine the benchmark borrowing cost following a period of monetary stability. Market data from CME FedWatch shows an 86.7% probability of a 25 bps rise, a shift that breaks the current multiyear streak of unchanged levels. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan shifted their forecasts to align with this expectation after August inflation and oil price surges. This move challenges President Donald Trump's public demand that the US maintain the lowest interest rates in the world.

White House adviser Kevin Hassett warned Chair Kevin Warsh against hiking rates before the midterms, noting that the central bank has rarely done so since 1913. Although Hassett stated the administration will back the final decision, 19 of 22 major Wall Street firms now forecast a September increase. Some analysts project a 50 bps rise, as persistent inflation lingers and Brent crude returns to $107 per barrel.