Five US midterm battleground states are facing economic pressure as Canada levies retaliatory duties on a wide range of American exports. Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire conduct $188B in trade with Canada, representing more than 25% of all bilateral business. Canada's new tariffs reach up to 50% on over $20B of US products, leaving Maine particularly exposed as it relies on Canada for more than 60% of its traded goods.

The trade dispute follows a drop in US-built vehicles' share of Canada's new car market to 28.4% in the first half of 2026, down from 35.4% a year prior. This decline aligns with a 25% US levy on Canadian vehicles that is scheduled to double in January 2027. Since January 2025, the US has lost about 75,000 manufacturing jobs, including 25,900 in vehicles and parts, while GM and Stellantis reported billions in losses.