A Federal Reserve interest rate increase on October 28 is now priced at a 60% probability by market participants. Other financial indicators reflect a 53% chance for a hike next month, a move that would leave borrowing costs 125 basis points higher than previous forecasts for the period.

The shift represents a reversal from one year ago when investors projected three interest rate cuts by October 2026. Despite a prevailing narrative that the central bank would avoid policy changes during the week before the midterm elections, betting market odds for an October hike have continued to climb.