The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.595%, its highest level since 2002, climbing for a sixth straight session as the global bond selloff deepened. The 10-year yield reached 5.26%, its highest since 2007. High oil prices, inflation concerns, heavy debt issuance and fiscal worries continue to fuel the rout, which has left Treasuries down 2.6% this year.

The rout extends worldwide at the long end. UK 30-year yields reached 5.91%, the highest since 1998, Japan's 30-year yield rose to 4.18%, the highest since the bond's 1999 debut, and Germany's climbed to 3.96%, the highest since 2011. The 30-year US inflation-protected yield jumped to 3.28%, its highest since continuous issuance began in 2004. Ed Yardeni says a more likely explanation for the global rout is that the yen-carry trade is unwinding as the Bank of Japan raises its policy rate, "forcing carry traders to sell government bonds they bought worldwide with proceeds from cheap yen loans."

The latest leg of the selloff was triggered by the September flash composite PMI, which printed at 58.4, a five-year high, and by weak demand at a $70 billion five-year note auction. Firms' input costs jumped in September at the steepest rate in four years on fuel and transport costs, adding to upward pressure on inflation. The MOVE index of Treasury volatility jumped 19% last week, its largest weekly increase since April 2025. The longest-duration Treasury ETF is down 67% from its March 2020 peak, and TLT hit an all-time low. Average 30-year mortgage rates are above 7.4%, the highest since April 2024. Markets still price about a 70% chance of another Fed hike on October 28, a week before the midterm elections, even as Wall Street expects the central bank to hold.