The number of new positions created in the US economy failed to meet market expectations for the period ending in September, missing the consensus of 84,000 to 90,000. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from a previous 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, falling short of predictions. Private payrolls added 46,000 jobs against a forecast of 81,000, and government payrolls contracted by 17,000.

Employment data for July and August was revised down by a combined 60,000 positions, with July moving to a loss of 10,000 and August falling to 133,000. This September report marks the third weakest of 2026, triggering a shift in monetary expectations; Kalshi now prices an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in October. The prime age employment-population ratio rose slightly to 80.7%.