James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% for the US Senate in a survey of likely voters conducted September 8 through 11 by ReconMR and Siena College. Gina Hinojosa leads incumbent Governor Greg Abbott 49% to 45%, and Vikki Goodwin leads Lt. Governor Dan Patrick 47% to 46% in the same poll. Republican Mayes Middleton holds a 1 point lead over Nathan Johnson 45% to 44% for Texas Attorney General.

A separate Emerson poll from September 12 through 14 finds Greg Abbott leading Gina Hinojosa 48.7% to 45.5% for governor. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 47.3% to 46.3% for Senate, a reversal from an August poll where Paxton held a 1 point lead. Republicans maintain a 12.3 percentage point advantage in Party ID in Texas at 46% compared to 33.7% for Democrats.