Republican operatives are privately conceding that a once safe win in a key southern state is now in jeopardy as internal and public polling deteriorate. A YouGov poll from Sept. 15-18 shows Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 54% to 41% in the fight for a Senate vacancy. A separate Quantus Insights survey from Sept. 21-22 shows a tighter margin of 48.4% to 43.3%. In response to the slide, the Republican super PAC Old North Action scrapped $6.5 million in ad reservations for October.

The race is one of nine battlegrounds that will decide control of the Senate, and the state has not elected a Democrat to the chamber in nearly 20 years. GOP officials attribute the vulnerability to Whatley's ties to Donald Trump, who holds a 39% approval rating in the state. While a Democratic operative reports that internal GOP polling shows Cooper up by double digits, some party leaders believe the seat can be saved if economic sentiment improves before the election.