Former Governor Roy Cooper has 50.8% support compared to 38.5% for Republican Michael Whatley in a Big Data Poll of likely voters for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina. The survey, conducted from Sept. 27 to Sept. 29, shows Cooper is attracting voters who shifted from Donald Trump in 2024 at more than three times the rate at which Whatley is attracting those who voted for Kamala Harris, with 17% of Trump voters backing the Democrat and 3% of Harris voters backing the Republican.

The lead is the widest measured for a federal race in the state in 10 years. Analysis of the results suggests Whatley is underperforming in traditional swing areas and trailing Donald Trump's relative strength by 15 percentage points in the Raleigh-Durham-Triangle region. Factors including inflation, war, and a lack of domestic focus have caused previous Republican gains in eastern counties to vanish.