A unanimous panel of the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has granted Ohio and Tennessee the authority to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi under state gambling laws. The court found that Kalshi's sports-event contracts do not meet the legal definition of "swaps," meaning they are not under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The ruling further established that state gaming regulations may apply regardless of whether these contracts are classified as swaps.

This decision increases the number of federal appeals courts siding with state regulators over prediction platforms to 2 to 1. The resulting contradiction between the Sixth Circuit and the Third Circuit creates a circuit split that the U.S. Supreme Court will likely resolve in a future hearing.