A survey conducted by Torchlight Strategies from Sept. 15 to Sept. 19 found that the margin between candidates in the state's top political contests for the next cycle is less than 1.5 percentage points. Republican Mike Rogers leads Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 44.4% to 43.1% for the US Senate seat, with others at 3.9%, while Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 42.2% to 41.1% for governor. The generic congressional ballot in Michigan is split exactly 45.5% to 45.5% between the parties. The poll was commissioned for a GOP-linked group.

Commentator Ari Fleischer suggested the results may favor Rogers more than the numbers indicate, noting that polling has previously overestimated El-Sayed's strength. In the Democratic Senate primary, Fleischer noted that final polls predicted a 10.5 point advantage for El-Sayed, but the candidate won by only one percentage point.