Intelligence reports indicate that Moscow intends to stage strikes against Ukraine's backers to create the impression that the alliance's mutual defense pact is ineffective, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Sejm. Tusk stated that Russia would present these drone and missile attacks as accidents to weaken the will of NATO members to invoke Article 5. French President Emmanuel Macron described these warnings as sound and well documented after a 3 hour security briefing with intelligence agency heads and political candidates.

Macron announced a new critical infrastructure protection plan as the Russian hybrid threat against France and Europe intensifies. Germany is readying hospitals for a potential conflict, and Lithuania has revised its evacuation plans while Belarusian forces carry out maneuvers near the border. Latvian President Rinkēvičs authorized NATO and local troops to resist limited incursions without waiting for Brussels, though NATO reports no risk of an imminent attack.