Exit polls released Sunday indicate a surge for the far-right in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election, posing a threat to the governing coalition. The AfD is projected to secure 37.0% of the vote, slightly ahead of the center-left Social Democratic Party's 35.5% share. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union is forecast to receive 5.5%, marking the party's poorest performance in a German state vote. In separate Berlin state polls, the AfD is at 16% and the SPD at 12%.

The elections in northeast Germany and the capital serve as a direct test of leadership for Chancellor Merz. The record low for the CDU and gains for the AfD create fresh challenges for the administration following a trend of rising far-right support that has shifted political dynamics in eastern regions.