Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel after topping $108 last week as recovering Gulf exports eased supply concerns. US oil stockpiles also unexpectedly rose last week.

Saudi crude transits through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 6.7 million barrels a day last week from about 850,000 in late August. Producers have increased shipments with US military protection along Oman's coast and through alternative pipelines, ports and transfers between ships. JPMorgan estimates Middle East crude exports have recovered to 98% of prewar levels, or roughly 17.5 million barrels a day.

Fuel shipments remain far below normal. JPMorgan puts refined product exports at 58% of prewar volumes, while Goldman Sachs estimates key products including diesel and jet fuel are at half their 2025 average amid refinery outages and shipping risks. The crude recovery also comes at a cost: Rory Johnston estimates moving barrels out through Hormuz costs $30 to $40 or more per barrel, excluding US military spending.