Persian Gulf crude shipments have reached 108% of their 2025 average, lifting total oil exports back to last year's level, Goldman Sachs estimates. Total exports doubled in September to 23.3 million barrels a day, including shipments tracked as “dark exports.”

The recovery remains uneven: key refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, are at just 50% of their 2025 level amid refinery outages and shipping risks. Goldman sees the global oil market as roughly balanced and maintains its forecast for Brent crude to reach $85 a barrel by year end.

US military protection and routes along Oman's coast have helped Gulf producers move more oil despite Iranian attacks. Moving barrels through Hormuz costs $30 to $40 or more a barrel, excluding US military costs, Rory Johnston estimates. Brent settled at $102.59 a barrel on Sept. 29, down 2.56% as Middle Eastern crude flows recovered.