Middle Eastern crude oil flows have recovered to about 98% of prewar volumes, while refined product flows remain at 58%, supporting higher fuel prices, JPMorgan estimates. Refining remains a bottleneck, and the largest tankers leaving the region have priority but carry crude rather than finished fuel, TankerTrackers said.

US military protection and shipping routes along Oman's coast have helped Gulf producers move more oil despite Iranian attacks. Kpler's latest seven-day average for flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached 14.19 million BPD, compared with a prewar baseline of 17.13 million BPD. Those figures cover the strait rather than all regional export routes. Rory Johnston estimates the cost of getting barrels out through Hormuz at $30 to $40 or more a barrel, excluding US military costs.

Brent crude settled 2.56% lower at $102.59 a barrel on Sept. 29 as Middle Eastern crude flows recovered. US crude fell 3.48% to $89.38, dropping below $90 for the first time in three weeks.