Daily oil shipments through the Persian Gulf's primary shipping lane have hit pre-conflict volumes for the first time since the war began, with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reporting a peak of over 20M BPD in a single day last week. Current consensus among analysts, including Javier Blas and Rory Johnston, indicates a recovery in flows, with some tracking data showing a 7-day moving average of 13.5M BPD. The U.S. Navy has facilitated these shipments using "dark" tankers that operate with AIS transponders switched off to evade Iranian detection and hinder independent tracking.

Despite the rebound, shipping costs have spiked due to a $30-$40 per barrel surcharge for risk and military escorts. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf challenged U.S. claims of control, citing oil market premiums of $35 to $50 per barrel over pre-invasion levels. Further skepticism comes from analyst Philip Pilkington, who warns that most of the reported volume gains rely on a single dataset from Kpler that incorporates satellite estimates of dark vessels which cannot be independently verified.