Agricultural and transport costs face a prolonged period of elevation as fuel supplies tighten across the United States. The domestic oil industry warns that diesel prices will not return to normal for 1 year, according to reporting by the Financial Times, following a surge where futures hit a record high above $224 per barrel on September 30. This peak coincided with an acute squeeze during contract expiry that drove the diesel crack spread versus Brent to $122 per barrel.

The price spike is squeezing the economics of food production for farmers in California who rely on diesel for most operations, Reuters reported. Market analysts note that restoring crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz is insufficient for stability. Instead, normalization depends on resolving refining bottlenecks and tracking variables such as Ukrainian drone activity and Russian refinery turnaround times.