Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by 7 percentage points in Alaska and James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 6 points in Texas, based on new New York Times and Siena College polls of likely voters. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a 3 point advantage over incumbent Jon Husted. These shifts in traditionally Republican territory correlate with low approval ratings for President Trump, who is disapproved of by 57% of Texas voters and 56% of those in Alaska, according to the surveys conducted between Sept. 21 and Oct. 1.

While the New York Times released only Senate data officially, leaked numbers from the same wave show Democratic leads in the Texas governor's race, with Gina Hinojosa leading incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 46%, and the Alaska governor's race, where Jonathan Kreiss-Timmons leads 52% to 48%. Despite the polling, prediction markets on Kalshi still list Abbott as the favorite to retain the Texas governorship, although Hinojosa's win probability rose to 26% from 8% in July.