James Talarico holds a 6 point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, marking a reversal from 2018 when Beto O'Rourke trailed by a similar margin. New polling from the New York Times and Siena College among likely voters shows Talarico leading 51% to 45%, while Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan 50% to 43% in Alaska and Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 49% to 46% in Ohio. In Iowa, Republican Hinson leads 48% to 47%, and the Kansas Senate race is tied at 45% each.

Prediction markets on Kalshi increased Gina Hinojosa's probability of winning the Texas governor's race to 26%, up from 8% in July, after leaked NYT/Siena data showed her leading incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 46%. Although the New York Times removed the gubernatorial results from its online aggregator to focus on an official Senate-only release, Abbott remains the market favorite to win reelection. Other leaked figures indicated Democratic leads in gubernatorial races in Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa.