James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 45% in the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas in new polling by The New York Times and Siena College. Democratic candidates also hold leads in Alaska, where Mary Peltola is ahead by 7 points, and Ohio, where Sherrod Brown leads by 3 points, both of which are characterized as potential flips. In the Texas governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa now leads incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 46%, representing a 10 point swing in her favor since June.

The polls, conducted September 21-30 among likely voters, show Democratic candidate El-Sayed leading by 5 points in Michigan and a tie for the Senate seat in Kansas. Incumbents continue to lead in Iowa and Maine, where Republicans Hinson and Collins are ahead by 1 and 3 points, respectively. The results reflect a departure from historical trends in Alaska and Texas, which consistently vote Republican.