State Representative Josh Turek leads Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson by 4 points in the competition for the vacancy left by retiring Senator Joni Ernst, a Rasmussen poll found. The Democrat holds the advantage in the most recent data, suggesting a shift in momentum for the open seat.

The result reverses a Quantus Insights poll from Sept. 28-29, which gave Hinson a lead of 48.5% to 46.6% among lean voters. Other surveys in late September showed Turek ahead, with an Insider Advantage poll at 47.4% to 45.7% and a Big Data poll at 46.5% to 42.2%. While Kalshi prediction markets favored Hinson on Oct. 1 with 59% odds of winning, VoteHub's polling average on Sept. 26 called the race a dead heat with Turek leading by 0.9 points.