Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Hinson currently holds 47.1% support among likely voters, surpassing Democrat Josh Turek's 45.8% in a Quantus poll conducted Sept. 28-29. When leaners were pushed to a choice, Hinson's lead widened to 48.5% against 46.6% for Turek, while third-party candidate Thomas Laehn trailed with 1.7%.

The results signal a shift from previous data; a Big Data poll released Sept. 23 showed Turek leading 46.5% to 42.2%, and an Insider Advantage survey from the same period placed Turek ahead 47.4% to 45.7%. While Turek maintains a 12.6 point lead among independents, VoteHub maintains a dead heat polling average as of Sept. 26 and rates the seat "Tilt R" with a projected final margin of R +1.3.