Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament on Thursday that intelligence indicates Moscow is preparing aerial attacks against Ukraine's backers. These strikes would be presented as accidents to suggest that NATO's Article 5 collective defense provision is more theoretical than practical. French President Emmanuel Macron backed Tusk's assessment after a 3 hour intelligence briefing with security agencies including the DGSI, DGSE, and DRM.

France is currently drafting a plan to protect critical infrastructure and defense sites from drone and cyberattacks as hybrid threats intensify. Other European leaders are signaling similar risks, with Finland's president calling on citizens to prepare for sabotage and Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs authorizing troops to resist limited incursions without waiting for a decision from Brussels. Security officials and experts have linked Russia to a series of plots in recent weeks with the potential to trigger a dangerous escalation in the West's conflict with Moscow.