The Congressional Budget Office updated its annual PCE inflation outlook for the first quarter of 2027, increasing the projection by 0.5 percentage point. This adjustment accompanies the agency's finding that the war in Iran cost the United States $38 billion over the first five months of the conflict.

The $38 billion spending figure represents the direct fiscal cost of the opening campaign and its initial requirements. The revised inflation forecast for early 2027 is part of a broader macroeconomic analysis by the CBO to calculate the total budgetary toll of the engagement on the federal government.